Insurance Limit Prediction Model
At HSB (Munich Re), underwriters relied on manual heuristics to set insurance limits — a slow, inconsistent process that left money on the table and introduced risk.
Built a LightGBM ensemble model with SHAP explainability, fed by a cleaned pipeline of 50k+ policy records. Designed feature engineering around loss history, exposure metrics, and industry codes. Iterated weekly with underwriting stakeholders to calibrate outputs.
Reduced prediction error from 19% MAPE to 7% MAPE — adopted by the underwriting team as the default recommendation engine.